A dissertation about American History X

We know that an individual can be a product of many vital circumstances, and all these can configure many aspects of his actual worldview, but specify what aspects are more important is another matter. It's a classical black box problem. When we see, for example, a movie as American History X, we can speculate in a plausible way about some life events that lead Derek Vinyard to a Nazi group, but we can't realize about its exact weights. In other words, we suppose a set called "life events": { his father talk to him about the Rodney King's affair in t, he knows nationalsocialist friends in t+2 }.

We can add more elements to this set. If we sum all elements, the probability is 1 (or 100%, for the layperson). And, if we imagine a void set, {ø}, the probability is zero. Given these conditions, every element has a probability 0 < x < 1. The x is an incognit, hence, we can't know its probability. In this context, we must to use statistical techniques and these stuff.